A 50 BPS Rate Cut Is Not Out of the Question
As we share below, the Fed Funds futures market is 86.5% confident the Fed will by 25 bps in September. However, they assign a zero percent chance that the Fed…
All Eyes on CPI Today: A Potential Game-Changer for Gold, US Dollar, and Euro
The (DXY) is currently trading around 98.40 as global markets turn their attention to today’s highly anticipated release of the U.S. (CPI) at 3:30 PM Riyadh time (08:30 AM ET).…
CPI Preview: The Print That Could Rewire September’s ’Done Deal’
By the time the clock hits 8:30 a.m. in New York today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will drop July’s — and while it’s just one line of data in…
US Business Cycle Profile Shows Mixed Picture for Key Indicators
Using the US stock market as a guide suggests that business-cycle conditions remain strong in terms of the recovery since the current economic expansion began in May 2020. The rebound…
Limited US Tariff Impact Allows Fed to Cut Rates From September
was broadly in line with expectations as tariffs continue to be largely absorbed within US corporate profit margins. This gives the Fed the room to respond to the weaker jobs…
Tariff Pain Fuels Investors’ Hopes for Rate Cuts
Trade policy continued to dominate market conversations this past week as the Trump administration’s full tariffs took effect early Thursday morning. Imports from most countries now face 10 percent levies,…
CPI Fallout: Fed Likely to Cut Rates Multiple Times Before Year-End
The inflation story and the employment story are about the only things rippling the still summer waters these days, it seems. The weak in the most-recent report got equity investors…
How Iran Could Trigger a Global Economic Collapse
Warren Buffett once referred to derivatives as “financial weapons of mass destruction.” He wasn’t being dramatic—he was warning that if things went wrong, these complex financial instruments could cause massive,…
Bund Curve Steepening Could Extend as ECB Cycle Bottoms
are on the rise, with the curve hinting at more to come. German fiscal plans and Dutch pension fund reform are factors in play. The US is in a similar…
Tesla: Hype Aside, How Much Is the EV Giant Really Worth Now?
Tesla (NASDAQ:) shares have been on a turbulent ride since the start of the year. The stock spent roughly the first four months in a downtrend before finding a floor…