US Business Cycle Profile Shows Mixed Picture for Key Indicators
Using the US stock market as a guide suggests that business-cycle conditions remain strong in terms of the recovery since the current economic expansion began in May 2020. The rebound…
Limited US Tariff Impact Allows Fed to Cut Rates From September
was broadly in line with expectations as tariffs continue to be largely absorbed within US corporate profit margins. This gives the Fed the room to respond to the weaker jobs…
Tariff Pain Fuels Investors’ Hopes for Rate Cuts
Trade policy continued to dominate market conversations this past week as the Trump administration’s full tariffs took effect early Thursday morning. Imports from most countries now face 10 percent levies,…
CPI Fallout: Fed Likely to Cut Rates Multiple Times Before Year-End
The inflation story and the employment story are about the only things rippling the still summer waters these days, it seems. The weak in the most-recent report got equity investors…
How Iran Could Trigger a Global Economic Collapse
Warren Buffett once referred to derivatives as “financial weapons of mass destruction.” He wasn’t being dramatic—he was warning that if things went wrong, these complex financial instruments could cause massive,…
Bund Curve Steepening Could Extend as ECB Cycle Bottoms
are on the rise, with the curve hinting at more to come. German fiscal plans and Dutch pension fund reform are factors in play. The US is in a similar…
Tesla: Hype Aside, How Much Is the EV Giant Really Worth Now?
Tesla (NASDAQ:) shares have been on a turbulent ride since the start of the year. The stock spent roughly the first four months in a downtrend before finding a floor…
EUR/USD at a Tipping Point: Key Levels to Watch Ahead of CPI Print
At the start of the month, rose sharply after weak . Since then, it has stabilized between 1.16 and 1.17. The market is waiting for new events to set the…
US Dollar: CPI Data Poised to End Range-Bound Price Action This Week
The started the week quietly as traders waited for important events: July , the US-China trade deal deadline, and the Trump-Putin meeting on Friday. The US dollar showed small attempts…
1 Stock to Buy, 1 Stock to Sell This Week: Cisco, Deere
Trump tariff news, U.S. inflation data, and retail sales will be in focus this week. Buy Cisco: Robust momentum in networking and security, accelerating AI/cloud adoption, and positive analyst outlooks…