- U.S. jobs report, retail sales, Iran war news will be in focus during the week ahead.
- ExxonMobil stands out as a momentum play, benefiting from heightened oil price volatility due to Middle East supply concerns.
- Nike is the stock to avoid as it prepares to release earnings that are likely to disappoint along with weak forward guidance.
U.S. stocks tumbled in a broad selloff on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average joining the Nasdaq in correction territory as investors worried about the global economic impact of the war in Iran.
Source: Investing.com
The benchmark S&P 500 suffered its fifth straight weekly loss, dropping 2.1% in the period. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 3.2%, while the blue-chip Dow shed 0.9%.
Next week’s U.S. employment report headlines a fresh batch of economic data for investors, who also will closely follow developments in an Iran war that is entering its second month.
The payrolls report for March is expected to show an estimated increase of 56,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The report is due on April 3, when U.S. stock markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.
Source: Investing.com
Retail sales data for February and reports on manufacturing activity are also due next week.
Monday will see Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell take part in a moderated discussion at Harvard University. As ever, his comments could move the market.
Meanwhile, will post earnings on Tuesday, while the bulk of first-quarter results are still a couple of weeks away.
Regardless of which direction the market goes, below I highlight one stock likely to be in demand and another which could see fresh downside. Remember though, my timeframe is just for the week ahead, Monday, March 30 – Friday, April 3.
Stock to Buy: ExxonMobil
stands out as the clear buy recommendation this week. The primary catalyst is the sharp rise in global oil prices driven by mounting fears of supply disruptions amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
Crude benchmarks have climbed significantly since the Iran war began as concerns mount over potential interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: Investing.com
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is up more than 70% year-to-date to about $100 a barrel, while international Brent crude futures topped $105 on Friday, with intraday highs pushing towards $110.
Even with some pullbacks and ceasefire speculation, the risk premium remains elevated, supporting higher energy prices into the near term.
ExxonMobil’s extensive upstream operations, including production in key regions like the Permian Basin and Guyana, position it to capitalize on the rally in oil prices. Every $10 increase in crude prices can translate to billions in additional annual cash flow.
Source: Investing.com
Notably, XOM stock is trading near its 52-week high of $171.23. Volatility has picked up, but with a 1-year beta of just 0.27, ExxonMobil is showing remarkable stability even in turbulent markets.
That makes ExxonMobil an attractive stock to buy or add to this week as geopolitical tensions sustain upward pressure on crude.
Trade Setup:
- Entry: Around current levels (~$171.00)
- Exit Target: $180.00 (gain ~5.3%)
- Stop-Loss: $165.60 (risk ~3.5%)
Stock to Sell: Nike
Nike, on the other hand, is the stock to sell or avoid this week as it faces several headwinds heading into its latest earnings report. The sports apparel titan is slated to deliver its fiscal Q3 results after the closing bell on Tuesday at 4:15PM ET and the outlook is grim.
Despite its strong brand recognition, Nike has faced mounting challenges in recent quarters, including softening consumer demand, intense competition, and strategic missteps.
Options pricing implies potential post-earnings volatility of up to +/-9%, with downside risks potentially pushing shares to multi-year lows.
Source: InvestingPro
Nike is expected to post a 45% year-over-year drop in adjusted earnings per share to $0.30. Revenue is projected to fall 1% to about $11.2 billion, reflecting softening demand in key markets (particularly China), inventory issues, higher tariffs, and competitive pressure.
Disappointing guidance could further weigh on sentiment, as investors question when Nike’s turnaround efforts—under new leadership and restructuring—will deliver sustainable growth.
Brands like On, Hoka, and Alo Yoga are gaining market share in the performance and lifestyle categories, eroding Nike’s dominance. Furthermore, Nike’s premium pricing is becoming a liability in a value-conscious environment.
Source: Investing.com
NKE stock is trading just above its 52-week low at $51.20, with a relentless downtrend reinforced by a 1-month loss of 16.8%.
With a critical earnings report on the horizon and management signaling ongoing headwinds, Nike’s high valuation multiples and negative momentum point to further downside risk. The RSI suggests the stock is technically oversold, but without positive catalysts, catching a falling knife could prove costly.
Trade Setup:
- Entry: Around current levels (~$51.15)
- Exit Target: $48.00 (gain ~5.5%)
- Stop-Loss: $53.24 (risk ~4.4%)
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Disclosure: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research.
At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF. I am also long on the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies’ financials.
The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.
Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight.