- Bitcoin drops 50 percent as macro pressure reshapes crypto cycle.
- Miner selling and ETF outflows deepen capitulation fears.
- Key resistance at 70K to 78K defines the recovery path.
Cryptocurrency markets are going through a tough phase in the first quarter of 2026, and this cycle feels different from the earlier ones. is now trading around $65,000, after dropping about 50% from its record high of $126,000 in October 2025.
This is more than a normal price pullback. The decline reflects a mix of global economic policies, liquidity stress at some companies, and bigger structural changes in the crypto mining industry.
Global Macro Financial Framework: External Pressures
Bitcoin’s growing acceptance by large institutions has changed how it behaves. Over the past few years, it has shifted from being seen as an independent asset to one that moves with broader financial markets. As a result, global risk sentiment now has a much stronger influence on crypto prices. Economic uncertainty in the US has added to that pressure.
Markets are trying to understand how quickly inflation is cooling. At the same time, fresh tariff announcements from the Trump administration targeting Europe and Asia have supported the US dollar.
In this environment, Bitcoin has failed to behave like digital gold. Instead, it has shown a strong correlation with US equity markets, particularly technology stocks. Ongoing debate about whether the artificial intelligence sector has reached a saturation point has further reduced risk appetite, weighing on crypto assets along with growth-oriented equities.
Miner Surrender and Trust Issues
When we look at Bitcoin’s internal dynamics, there is clear pressure on the supply side. The average cost of mining is estimated at around $87,000. With Bitcoin trading roughly $20,000 below that level, many miners are operating under strain. To keep their businesses running, some are selling part of their reserves. That steady flow of supply creates a natural layer of selling in the market.
On the institutional side, risk appetite has weakened. About $5 billion has flowed out of Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks, which suggests that large investors are moving capital toward safer assets. At the same time, reports that some established crypto platforms have paused operations have unsettled the market. For many participants, this brings back memories of the bankruptcy wave seen in 2022.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index also reflects this mood. The index remains in the 5 to 8 range, a level described as extreme fear. Together, these signals show that caution and anxiety continue to shape sentiment across the crypto market.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trying to stabilise in a technically important area. After dropping to around $60,000 last week, the price bounced from that level. However, the move higher faced resistance near $70,000, where sellers stepped back in.
Over the past week, Bitcoin has stayed below its 8-day EMA, which reflects short-term weakness. From a technical perspective, this keeps the broader bias cautious. The $62,800 level, which aligns with the Fibonacci 1.272 extension, now stands out as a key support zone. The earlier rebound from $60,000 showed that buyers are active in this region and see it as a potential base. Still, if daily closes slip below this support, selling pressure could increase. In that case, the next major area to watch sits near $55,000, around the Fibonacci 1.414 level.
One positive signal comes from momentum indicators. On the daily chart, the Stochastic RSI is showing a positive divergence. While price continues to trend lower, the indicator has started to move upward from oversold levels. This often suggests that downward momentum is fading. In many cases, such divergences lead to sharp upward moves that surprise traders, including short squeezes or bear traps.
Even so, for any rebound to turn into a stronger recovery, Bitcoin needs to break above key resistance levels and regain short-term averages. Until that happens, the market remains in a fragile balance between support and renewed selling pressure.
Critical Resistance Levels for a Trend Reversal
For the rebound to develop into a sustained recovery, Bitcoin first needs to move above the psychological $70,000 level with strong trading volume. A move without volume support would likely lack conviction.
A more reliable signal of trend change would come if the price breaks the downtrend line and reclaims the Fibonacci 1.0 level near $76,350. That zone, roughly between $76,000 and $78,000, represents a key technical barrier.
As long as Bitcoin fails to establish solid ground above that band, any upward move may remain temporary and part of the broader medium-term downtrend rather than the start of a lasting recovery.
Is a Short Position Explosion on the Horizon?
Funding rates in Bitcoin futures are hovering around minus 0.006 percent, which shows that short positions dominate the market. When positioning becomes heavily skewed to one side and leverage builds in that direction, sharp counter moves often follow as liquidity gets cleared. Combined with the positive divergence in the Stochastic RSI, this setup leaves room for a sudden spike toward $70,000.
From a broader perspective, Bitcoin appears to be moving through a capitulation phase. ETF outflows, pressure on miners, and macro uncertainty have weighed on sentiment. At the same time, some technical indicators suggest the market may be in a cleansing process that resets positioning.
A more conservative approach would be to wait for weekly closes above $78,000 before calling it a structural recovery. For traders with a higher risk appetite, the Stoch RSI divergence opens the door for a tactical move toward $70,000, with $62,800 acting as a clear risk level.
In the first quarter, the crypto sector also seems to be entering a period of corporate restructuring. If Bitcoin weathers this phase and stabilises, the $55,000 area could later be seen as the base for the next major uptrend. Until clearer confirmation emerges, disciplined risk management remains essential. Lower leverage, smaller position sizes, and strict stop levels form the core protection in this volatile environment.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not intend to encourage the purchase of any asset and does not constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation, or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, and therefore any investment decision and the associated risk belong to the investor. Additionally, we do not offer any investment advisory services.