The fourth quarter of this year has been a tough period for . Since the start of October, the world’s most widely traded digital currency has fallen nearly 25%, touching lows around $80,000 per coin. The downward move has been largely driven by capital outflows, including roughly $400 million exiting the market on Monday alone.
The situation worsened after China’s central bank issued a direct warning about illegal activities linked to the digital currency industry and reinforced its stance against unlawful crypto operations.
Recent buying momentum, which pushed Bitcoin back above the $90,000 mark and briefly past the $90,000 barrier again, has offered some relief to buyers. This renewed demand has given the market a short pause and raised expectations that broader declines may be slowing, at least for now.
Pending Return of Capital Inflows
Over the weekend, Bitcoin trading saw a sharp surge in selling pressure. A key trigger was the People’s Bank of China, which once again issued firm warnings about the wider cryptocurrency sector. The central bank’s statement reinforces that cryptocurrencies hold no official or regulated status in China, and using them as a payment method is illegal.
Whether this warning will lead to concrete restrictions or tighter monitoring remains uncertain. In reality, millions of Chinese users can still access overseas platforms for crypto trading, highlighting the gap between policy and practical enforcement.
Two main fundamental factors help explain the recent downward move in Bitcoin. First, the new US administration has taken limited steps so far to make the crypto sector more attractive in the United States. Second, the pause in interest rate cuts has weighed on riskier assets, a category that strongly includes Bitcoin. The impact of rates may ease soon, as a 25 basis point cut later this month looks increasingly likely and could offset the pressure.
Bitcoin also tends to move in cycles. After long periods of growth, it often enters deep corrections, a phase widely called crypto winter. If this historical pattern plays out again, a sustained return to a strong upward trend may come only in the final quarter of next year. In this scenario, momentum could rebuild gradually, with a sharper recovery possible in the last quarter of 2026.
In the short term, capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will be a key indicator to watch. By the end of last week, these funds showed almost no inflow activity, reflecting weak institutional demand. If this trend persists, Bitcoin could trade within a broad consolidation zone around $93,000 per coin until either buyers or sellers regain clear control.
Bitcoin Struggles to End Broad Correction
The swift rejection of the recent selloff in Bitcoin prices supports a cautiously optimistic view that the broader downtrend could pause. Right now, the $93,000 area stands as the main resistance level. A close above it clears a path toward the intersection of the falling trend line and the next resistance band near $99,000 per coin, offering buyers a setup to push for higher ground toward $99,000 and beyond.
If the level holds, the market could move into the consolidation phase discussed earlier, with the closest support at about $84,000 per BTC. This range-bound trend remains a realistic outcome if buyers fail to break higher and sellers keep pressure active.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.