entered December with sharp swings, slipped in the early days as investors moved away from risk, then bounced from the $85,000, and is now trying to settle in the $91,000 to $95,000 range. Even though risk appetite improved after the Fed’s December 10 meeting, Bitcoin shows steady and cautious moves instead of a fast rally.
This brings up two key questions. Is the macro and liquidity backdrop truly supportive, or has the market already priced it in? And from a technical view, is this bounce turning into a real trend change, or is it only a pause in the broader decline?
Liquidity Support Available but Pricing Cautious
The big story this week is the and its more cautious message for 2026. The decision created a supportive backdrop for risky assets, but the market had already priced in this move. Because of that, Bitcoin reacted more to expectations than to the actual announcement.
Trading has shifted back to watching data and news flow. Liquidity had improved earlier with the end of quantitative tightening and strong repo activity, which helped the overall setup. Even so, this support has not driven the price on its own in the short term.
US data added a mixed but validating tone. figures pointed to some cooling, while unemployment claims stayed low, which shows the labor market still has unresolved tight spots. This strengthened the case for rate cuts and improved risk appetite. Bitcoin still remained stuck in a tight range, even with this backdrop.
A key reason is the shift in what drives the price. Fund flows such as ETF activity, institutional buying, and the regulatory climate have become more important for direction than macro signals alone.
In Asia, the PBoC’s repeated warning that crypto transactions are illegal and its focus on the risks of stablecoins helped trigger the early December sell-off. This influence faded quickly, which often happens with China-related shocks. The medium and long-term direction will still depend on US liquidity and regulation.
Two themes stand out in the crypto sector now. The first is the shift toward a more constructive regulatory tone in the US and a clearer embrace from traditional finance. The OCC’s guidance allowing banks to act as intermediaries in crypto transactions, without holding crypto on their own books, moves the industry further toward institutional adoption.
This type of update does not move prices immediately, but it strengthens the long-term foundation of the market. On the SEC side, efforts to create a more flexible framework for digital asset firms and broader ETF access for traditional institutions are also helping build medium-term confidence.
The second theme is fund flows. Since November, ETFs have seen heavy outflows, which strengthened the mood of profit-taking and risk aversion. This mindset also played a role in the sharp drop in early December. Even though risk appetite improved after the Fed meeting, Bitcoin did not deliver a strong rally.
The signal here is clear. Macro conditions give support, yet buying interest remains weak. The foundation looks healthy, but the market is still in a cautious pricing phase for now.
Technical Outlook in Bitcoin
In last week’s technical view, the picture was clear. After the OBO target played out, Bitcoin created a solid base near 85200, which lined up with the Fib 0.786 support of the April to October uptrend. The rebound carried the price toward the $91,000 zone, which sits at the Fib 0.144 level, and $94,700 stood out as the next real test.
That structure is still in place. is moving inside the $91,000 to $94,700 range, and this band has become an intimidation zone. The bounce from the lows is intact, yet the price stays under the main downward trend line. This keeps the move in the category of reaction and base building rather than a confirmed trend shift.
Current situation:
- The $85,150 to $85,260 zone, which matches the Fib 0.786 level, still acts as the main medium-term support. Strong buying after the sharp fall has turned this area into a reference zone.
- Holding above $91,000 matters for the recovery, but recent candles show that the rise met resistance near $94,700, and the price is back inside the $91,000 to $95,000 range.
- After the jump in volume at the bottom, trading has become calmer inside the band. This supports the view that Bitcoin is searching for balance instead of shifting into a fast trend reversal.
Although the short-term averages (8 and 21 EMA) have softened and turned upward after the bottom, the 3-month EMA near $101,000 is still positioned higher on the chart and the broader downtrend remains in place. It is too early to say the market has relaxed. The rise fits better as a strong reaction inside the downtrend until BTC breaks out of the band and holds above the key averages.
At the same time, the Stochastic RSI moving back into overbought territory keeps two scenarios open:
- Momentum buildup before breakout (momentum may accelerate with a close above resistance)
- Loss of momentum within the band and rollback (risk of short-term correction if $94,700 cannot be exceeded)
The second possibility remains fully valid as the price is still unable to produce a net close above $94,700.
Upside scenario according to the current outlook:
- If there is volume and consecutive daily closes above $94,700, the above-band momentum will be accepted.
- In this case, the first main target zone would be the psychological threshold of $100,000. This zone also includes the Fib 0.382 level.
- If $100,000 can be sustained above, the next broad resistance area can open to $105,400 (Fib 0.5) and then to the $110,200 (Fib 0.618) band. Higher, $117,000 (Fib 0.786) can be monitored as medium-term ceiling resistance.
Downside risk:
- The first critical level is again the $90,987-91,000 pivot. This zone works as the backdrop for the current consolidation.
- The $89,300 band has worked as “intermediate support” in recent sags; on closes below this price, the market’s focus may shift back to the $85,000 main support band.
- Closes below $85,000 would bring the lower support area ($75,000-$78,000) back on the agenda.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.