After more than a month of sideways movement, looks ready to resume its upward trend. The next step for bulls is to break above the $39 per ounce mark, setting a new high for this bull market. Even though silver is already up around 30% this year, there is still room for more gains.
Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected data gave the a boost, which caused some pullback in silver prices. But the bigger drivers—like ongoing worries about the tariff war—are likely to keep the uptrend intact. For now, buyers are aiming to push prices past the $40 level.
Can Silver Still Catch Up to Its Record Highs?
Unlike , which keeps setting new highs in dollar terms, silver still has a long way to go to reach similar levels in this bull market. So the key question is—can silver catch up in the next few months?
That would be a tough climb and would depend on two major developments:
- A Dovish Fed: The would need to cut interest rates more aggressively, weakening the US dollar. This usually helps precious metals like silver. But for this to happen, there would likely need to be a deep recession and a sharp drop in .
- Tariffs on Silver: The US-Mexico trade conflict would have to escalate and start including silver in the list of taxed goods. Right now, silver is not affected, but with President Donald Trump’s unpredictable policies, investors cannot rule out a change. Since Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer, new tariffs could be a strong trigger for price increases.
Inflation Surprise Clouds Rate Cut Hopes
Yesterday’s US inflation data gave mixed signals. While the monthly core reading came in below expectations, the rose 2.7%—slightly above forecasts. This surprise was enough to strengthen the US dollar.
These readings do not give the Fed any reason to shift its current stance. This means the most hawkish scenario—no interest rate cuts this year—remains a real possibility. In such a policy environment, a sharp rise in silver prices toward historic highs appears very unlikely by year-end.
Silver Technical Analysis
The latest inflation data is now the main driver behind the market rebound, largely due to the strengthening of the US dollar. For silver, the first target for sellers is the area where the upward trend line meets the support level, around $37.50 per ounce.
If the $37.50 support breaks, it could pave the way for a further decline toward the next key support level near $35.50 per ounce, which has been tested multiple times. On the other hand, for buyers, the main target remains the round-number resistance at $40.
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